Cataluña, brexit and stability in the "sol y playa" markets of the mediterranean: a perfect storm for the spanish tourist sector?

Abstract

Spain is a world leader in tourism competitiveness since 2015 (World Economic Forum (WEF), 2017). It occupies the second position after the US in terms of income from receiving tourism and since 2017 it has been, after France, the second world destination in terms of international tourist arrivals (UNWTO, 2017). In the last months, the tourism receiver and the income by tourist in Spain have stagnated, what has put in alert to the analysts on a possible deceleration of the external demand of our tourist sector. Therefore, we are currently in an uncertain scenario in which it is premature to move forward a change in the sector's cycle in a context of the beginning of a global economic slowdown. The institutional crisis in Catalonia, explicit since September 2017, the approval of the Brexit in the United Kingdom in 2016 and the appeasement and growing stability of the tourist markets of North Africa and Turkey are latent threats that, together, can become a perfect storm for the Spanish tourism sector.

The main objective of this work is to carry out a preliminary analysis on the behavior of the Spanish tourism sector in 2018, comparing its evolution with previous years. We will focus on analyzing variations in tourism variables in Catalonia as well as significant changes in the response of our three main international clients, with special emphasis on the British market.